2022 Oscars Best Actor Predictions

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ACTOR

UPDATED: Feb 6, 2022

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: Outside of the BAFTA Awards, which utilizes a combination of popular and jury-style voting, four men have popped up consistently on the circuit, three of which seem safe for nominations – Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”), who leads in the critics’ prizes, and Globe winners Andrew Garfield (“Tick, Tick … Boom!”) and Will Smith (“King Richard”). 

Denzel Washington (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”) is in a softer fourth place but still looks good for a nom. He’s already the most nominated Black actor in history with eight. Despite being BAFTA snubbed (again), he’s likely to extend that record that will have him tying the likes of Al Pacino and Spencer Tracy.

The Screen Actors Guild Awards nominated Javier Bardem (“Being the Ricardos”), and the group has a solid track record for translating to the Oscars five, as shown by their 5/5 match last year. Worth noting, SAG has only matched the Academy seven times in their 27-year history and only once consecutively, 1996 and 1997.

Looking at the history of the category, we’ve seen surprise inclusions, with minimal indication leading up to the moment – for example, Gary Oldman in “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” (2011) or Javier Bardem in “Biutiful” (2010). Some have even been with no indicators whatsoever, like Tommy Lee Jones for “In the Valley of Elah” (2007).

There’s also the search for the first-time acting nominee. Again, all previous nominees and winners are in the hunt, and if that’s what Oscar chooses, it’ll be the first since the 1980 film year – winner Robert DeNiro (“Raging Bull”), Robert Duvall (“The Great Santini”), John Hurt (“The Elephant Man”), Jack Lemmon (“Tribute”) and Peter O’Toole (“The Stunt Man”). Forty-one years is a long streak for the category, which could bode well for Peter Dinklage (“Cyrano”), Cooper Hoffman (“Licorice Pizza”) or Clifton Collins Jr (“Jockey”). Still, they don’t seem as likely. There’s even love out there for Los Angeles Film Critics winner Simon Rex (“Red Rocket”), who would fit that bill. There are even pundits out there that think the love for Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” is going to pull Jude Hill into the lineup, which isn’t that far-fetched. While we’re at it, if you think “Drive My Car” is likely for best picture, director and adapted screenplay inclusions, then you should also consider its star Hidetoshi Nishijima has a decent shot.

The non-first-timer statistic is also interesting since many actors on the bubble are former nominees and winners such as the BAFTA and Globe-nominated Mahershala Ali (“Swan Song”) and Leonardo DiCaprio (“Don’t Look Up”), the possible double acting nominee Bradley Cooper (“Nightmare Alley”), who’s looking strong for best supporting actor for “Licorice Pizza” and perhaps even Critics Choice nominee Nicolas Cage (“Pig”).

My final predictions column is here, with full rankings and commentary being updated before nominations.

Precursor Awards Leader: Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Awards Season Calendar

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Actor)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The most prominent Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Daniel Day-Lewis has the most wins in this category with three, while Marlon Brando, Gary Cooper, Tom Hanks, Dustin Hoffman, Fredric March, Jack Nicholson, Sean Penn and Spencer Tracy have two. Tracy and Sir Laurence Olivier have the most nominations in this category, with nine. Anthony Hopkins is currently the oldest winner and nominee ever at 82 for “The Father,” recently surpassing Henry Fonda for “On Golden Pond” and Richard Farnsworth for “The Straight Story.” Adrien Brody is the youngest winner ever for “The Pianist” at 29, while Jackie Cooper is the youngest nominee ever for “Skippy” at 9.

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

• The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022

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